Buradasınız

TÜRKİYE’DE BİRİNCİL ENERJİ TÜKETİMİ, KARBONDİOKSİT EMİSYONU VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME İLİŞKİSİ: EŞBÜTÜNLEŞME VE NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ

The Relationships Between Primary Energy Consumption, Carbon Dioxide Emission And Economic Growth in Turkey: An Analysis Of Cointegration And Causality

Journal Name:

Publication Year:

Author NameUniversity of AuthorFaculty of Author
Abstract (2. Language): 
The study investigates cointegration and causality between primary energy consumption, CO2 emissions, per capita gross domestic product and investments for Turkey using ARDL bounds testing approach complemented by Johansen–Juselius cointegration framework for time span 1970-2008. Empirical results indicate that there is an evidence of a long-run relationship between the variables in Turkey. The results indicate that uni-directional causality exists from economic growth and primary energy consumption to carbon dioxide emission both in the short-run. It has also been found that energy consumption, economic growth and investment are the long-run causes for CO2 emissions. An important policy implication is that energy consumption can be considered as an important factor for the economic growth and investment in Turkey. Moreover, as higher energy consumption also means higher pollution in the long-run, policy makers should stimulate alternative energy sources for meeting up the increasing energy demand.
Abstract (Original Language): 
Bu çalışma 1970-2008 dönemi için Türkiye’de karbondioksit emisyonu, fert başına gelir, birincil enerji tüketimi ve yatırımlar arasındaki ilişkiyi eşbütünleşme ve nedensellik testleriyle araştırmaktadır. Ampirik sonuçlarda, değişkenler arasında bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin mevcut olduğu gözlenmiştir. Test sonuçlarında ekonomik büyüme ve birincil enerji tüketiminden karbondioksit emisyonuna doğru kısa dönem tek yönlü nedensel ilişkiye rastlanmıştır. Ayrıca enerji tüketimi, ekonomik büyüme ve yatırımların uzun dönemde karbondioksit emisyonunun Granger nedeni olduğu ortaya konmuştur. Bu sonuçlardan Türkiye’de enerji tüketimi ve yatırımların ekonomik büyümede en önemli faktör olduğu söylenebilir. Dolayısıyla artan enerji tüketiminin uzun dönemde daha fazla kirlenmeye yol açacağından politika yapıcılarının artan enerji talebini karşılamak için alternatif enerji kaynaklarını teşvik etmeleri gerekmektedir.
FULL TEXT (PDF): 

REFERENCES

References: 

Akbostancı, E, Türüt-Asik S ve Tunç, G. İ. (2009), “The Relationship Between Income
and Environment in Turkey: is There an Environmental Kuznets Curve?”,
Energy Policy, 37:861-867.
Alam, M. J., Begum, I. A., Buysse, J., Rahman, S. ve Huylenbroeck, G. V. (2011),
”Guido Van Huylenbroeckd Dynamic Modeling of Causal Relationship Between
Energy Consumption, CO2 Emissions And Economic Growth in India”, Renewable
and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 15, 243– 3251.
Altınay, G. ve Karagol, E., (2004) “Structural Break, Unit Root, and The Causality
Between Energy Consumption and GDP in Turkey”, Energy Economics, 26, 985–
994.
Ang, James B., (2007), “CO2 Emissions, Energy Consumption, And Output in France”,
Energy Policy 35 (10), 4772–4778.
Ang, James B. (2008), “Economic “Development, Pollutant Emissions and Energy
Consumption In Malaysia” , Journal of Policy Modeling, 30, 271–278.
Apergis, N. ve Payne E. J. (2010), “The Emissions, Energy Consumption, and
Growth Nexus: Evidence from The Commonwealth of Independent States”,
Energy Policy, 38, 650–655.
Apergis, N. ve Payne, J.E., (2009), ”CO2 Emissions, Energy Usage, and Output in
Central America”, Energy Policy, 37, 3282–3286.
Apergis, N., Payne, J. E., Menyah, K. ve Wolde-Rufael, Y. (2010), “On The Casual
Dynamics Beetween Emissions, Nuclear Energy, Renewable Energy, and Economic
Growth”, Ecological Economics, 69, 2255-2260.
Beckerman, W., (1992), “Economic Growth and the Environment: Whose Growth?
Whose Environment?”, World Development 20, 481–496.
Beltratti, A., (1997), Models of Economic Growth with Environmental Assets,
Kluwer Academic, London.
BP (British Petroleum) (2012), Historical Statistical Data from 1965-2011,
http://www.bp.com/sectiongenericarticle800.do?categoryId=9037130&contentId
=7068669, (Erişim Tarihi 21.09.2012).
Brown, S.P A. ve Yücel, M. K.,(2002), “Energy Prices and Aggregate Economic Activity:
an Interpretative Survey”, The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance,
42, 193–208.
ESKİŞEHİR OSMANGAZİ ÜNİVERSİTESİ 290 İİBF DERGİSİ
Bulte, E.H. ve van Soest, D.P., (2001), “Environmental Degradation in Developing
Countries: Households and The (Reverse) Environmental Kuznets Curve”, Journal
of Development Economics 65, 225–235.
Chang, Ching-Chih (2010) “A Multivariate Causality Test of Carbon Dioxide Emissions,
Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in China”, Applied Energy, 87,
3533–3537.
Coondoo D. ve Dinda S. (2008), “The Carbon dioxide emission and income: A
Temporal Analysis of Cross-Country Distributional Patterns”, Ecological Economics,
65:375-385.
Dinda S. (2004b), “Income and Emission: A Panel Data Based Cointegration Analysis”,
Ecological Economics, 57, 167-181.
Dinda, S. (2004a), “Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis: A Survey”, Ecological
Economics, 49, 431–455.
Dinda, S., (2002), A Theoretical Basis for Environmental Kuznets Curve, Economic
Research Unit, Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata.
Dolado, J. ve Lutkepohl, H. S., (1996), “Making Wald Tests for Cointegrated VAR
Systems”, Econometric Reviews, 15 (4), 369–386.
EIA, (2012), US Energy Information Administration, International Energy Statistics
http://www.eia.gov/countries/data.cfm (Erişim, 21.09.2012).
Enerji ve Tabii Kaynaklar Bakanlığı (2012), Enerji.
http://www.enerji.gov.tr/index.php?dil=tr&sf=webpages&b=enerji&bn=215&hn=
12&nm=384&id=384 (Erişim 23.09.2012)
Engle, R.F. ve Granger, C.W., (1987), “Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation,
Estimation and Testing”, Econometrica, 55, 251–276.
Erol, U. ve Yu, E.S.H., (1987), “On The Causal Relationship Between Energy and
Income for Industrialized Countries”, Journal of Energy and Development 13, 113-
122.
Dickey, David ve Wayne A Fuller; (1981), “Likelihood Ratio Statistics For Autoregressive
Time Series With A Unit Root”, Econometrica, 49(4), 1057-1072.
Fodha, M. ve Zaghdoud, O. (2010), “Economic Growth And Pollutant Emissions in
Tunisia: An Empirical Analysis of The Environmental Kuznets Curve”, Energy Policy
38, 1150–1156.
Friedl, B. ve Getzner, M. (2003), “Determinations of CO2 Emissions in a Small Open
Economy”, Ecological Economics, 45, pp.133-148.
NİSAN 2013 291
Glasure, Y.U. ve Lee, A.R., (1997), “Cointegration, Error-Correction, and The Relationship
Between GDP and Energy: The Case of South Korea and Singapore”, Resource
and Energy Economics, 20, 17–25.
Granger, C. ve Newbold, P. (1974), “Spurious Regressions in Econometrics”, Journal
of Econometrics, 2, 111-120.
Grossman G.M. ve Krueger A.B. (1991), Environmental Impacts of A North American
Free Trade Agreement. NBER Working Paper 3914. Cambridge, MA: National
Bureau of Economic Research.
Halıcıoğlu, F. (2009), “An Econometric Study of CO2 Emissions, Energy Consumption,
Income and Foreign Trade in Turkey”, Energy Policy 37, 1156–1164.
Heil, M.T. ve Selden T. M. (1999) “Panel Stationary and with Structural Breaks:
Carbon Emissions and GDP”, Applied Economics Letters, 6, 223-225.
Hossain, Md. Sharif (2011) “Panel Estimation for CO2 Emissions, Energy Consumption,
Economic Growth Trade Openness and Urbanization of Newly Industrialized
Countries”, Energy Policy, 39, 6991–6999
Huang, B., Hwang, M.J. ve Yang, C.W., (2008), “Causal Relationship Between
Energy Consumption and GDP Growth Revisited: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach”,
Ecological Economics 67, 41–54.
Johansen, S. (1988), “Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors”, Journal of Economic
Dynamics and Control, 12/2-3, 231-254.
Johansen, S. ve Juselius, K., (1990), “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference
on Cointegration- with Applications to The Demand for Money”, Oxford Bulletin
of Economics and Statistics 52 (2), 169–210.
John, A., Pecchenino, R., (1994). “An overlapping Generations Model of Growth
and The Environment”, Economic Journal 104, 1393–1410.
Kaygusuz, Kamil, (2009), “Energy and Environmental Issues Relating to Greenhouse
Gas Emissions for Sustainable Development in Turkey”, Renewable and Sustainable
Energy Reviews, 13, 253-270.
Kuznets, S., (1955), “Economic Growth and Income Inequality”, American Economic
Reviews 17, 57–84.
Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P.C.B., Schmidt, P., Shin, Y., (1992), “Testing The Null of
Stationarity Against The Alternative of A Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic
Time Series Have A Unit Root?”, Journal of Econometrics 54, 159–178.
ESKİŞEHİR OSMANGAZİ ÜNİVERSİTESİ 292 İİBF DERGİSİ
Lee, C. C ve Chang, C. P. (2005), ”Structural Breaks, Energy Consumption, and Economic
Growth Revisited: Evidence From Taiwan”, Energy Economics, 27(6), 857-
872.
Lee, C. C., (2005), “Energy Consumption and GDP in Developing Countries: A Cointegrated
Panel Analysis, Energy Economics”, 27, 415–427.
Lotfalipour, M. R., Falahi M. A. ve Ashena, M. (2010), “Economic Growth, CO2
Emissions, and Fosil Fuels Consumption in Iran”, Energy, 35, 5115-5120.
Managi, S. ve Jena, P. R. (2008), “Environmental Productivity and Kuznets Curve in
India”, Ecological Economics, 65, pp. 432-440.
Masih, A. M. M. ve Masih, R., (1997), “On The Temporal Causal Relationship
Between Energy Consumption, Real Income, And Prices: Some New Evidence
From Asian-Energy Dependent NICs Based on a Multivariate Cointegration/Vector
Error-Correction Approach”, Journal of Policy Modeling”, 19(4), 417–440.
Morimoto, R. ve Hope, C. (2004), “The Impact of Electricity Supply on Economic
Growth In Sri Lanka”, Energy Economics, 26(1) ,77-85.
Narayan, P.K., (2005), “The Savings And Investment Nexus for China: Evidence
From Cointegration Test” , Applied Economics, 1979–1990.
Oh, W. ve Lee, K., (2004), “Causal relationship Between Energy Consumption and
GDP Revisited: The Case of Korea 1970–1999”, Energy Economics 26, 51–59.
Osterwald-Lenum, M. (1992), “A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution
of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistic”, Oxford Bulletin
of Economics and Statistics, 54, 461-472.
Özturk, İlhan ve Acaravcı, Ali, (2010), “CO2 Emissions, Energy Consumption and
Economic Growth İn Turkey”, Renewable and Sustainable”, Energy Reviews, 14,
3220-3225.
Pao, Hsiao-Tien ve Tsai, Chung-Ming (2010), “CO2 “Emissions , Energy Consumption
And Economic Growth in BRIC Countries” Energy Policy, 38, 7850–7860
Pao, Hsiao-Tien, Fu, Hsin-Chia ve Tseng, Cheng-Lung (2012), “Forecasting of CO2
Emissions, Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in China Using An Improved
Grey Model, Energy, 40, 400-409.
Philips, P.C.B. ve P. Perron; (1988); “Testing for A Unit Root in Time Series Regression”,
Biomètrika, 75(2), ss. 336-346.
Perron, P. (1989), “The Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis”,
Econometrica, 57(6), 1361-1401
NİSAN 2013 293
Pesaran, H., ve Y. Shin (1995), “An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach
to Cointegration Analysis”, S. Strom, A. Holly ve A. Diamond (Eds.), Centennial
Volume of Ranger Frisch, Cambridge University Press.
Pesaran, H., Y. Shin ve R. J. Smith (2001), “Bound Testing Approaches to the
Analysis of Long Run Relationships”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-
326.
Rambaldi, A.N., ve Doran, H.E. (1996), Testing For Granger Non-Causality in Cointegrated
Systems Made Easy, Working Papers in Econometrics and Applied Statistics
88, Department of Econometrics, The University of New England.
Romero-Avira, D. (2008), “Questioning The Empirical Basis of The Environmental
Kuznets Curve for CO2: New Evidence from Panel Stationary Test Robust to Multiple
Breaks and Cross-Dependence”, Ecological Economics 64(3), 559-574.
Selden, T., Song, D., (1994), “Environmental Quality And Development: Is There A
Kuznets Curve for Air Pollution Emissions?”, Journal of Environmental Economics
and Management 27, 147– 162.
Shafik, N., (1994), “Economic Development and Environmental Quality: an Economic
Analysis,”, Oxford Economic Papers , 46, 757–773.
Shiu, A. ve Lam, L.P. (2004), “Electricity Consumption And Economic Growth in
China” Energy Policy, 32(1), 47-54.
Soytaş, U. ve Sarı, R. (2003), “Energy Consumption, Economic Growth, and Carbon
Emissions: Challenges Faced by an EU Candidate Member”, Ecological Economics,
68(6), 1667-1675
Stern, D.I. (2004), “The Rise and Fall of The Environmental Kuznets Curve “, World
Development”, 32, 1419-1439.
Stern, D.I., Common, M.S. ve Barbier, E.B., (1996), “Economic Growth And Environmental
Degradation: A Critique of The Environmental Kuznets Curve. World
Development, 24 (7), 1151–1160.
Stokey, N.L., (1998), “Are there Limits to Growth?”, International Economic Review
39 (1), 1-31.
Tiwari, Aviral Kumar (2011), “Primary Energy Consumption, CO2 Emissions and
Economic Growth: Evidence from India” SEE Journal, 6(2), 95-113.
TMMOB, (2012), Türkiye’nin Enerji Görünümü, Türkiye Makine Mühendisleri Odası
Raporu, Genişletilmiş İkinci Baskı, Ankara.
Toda, H.Y. ve Yamamoto, T., (1995), “Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressions
with Possibly Integrated Processes”, Journal of Econometrics 66, 225–250
ESKİŞEHİR OSMANGAZİ ÜNİVERSİTESİ 294 İİBF DERGİSİ
Wang, S.S., Zhou, D.Q. Zhou, P. ve Wang, Q. W. (2011), “CO2 Emissions, Energy
Consumption and Economic growth in China: A Panel Data Analysis”, Energy Policy,
39, 4870–4875.
Wolde-Rufael, Yemane (2004), “Disaggregated Industrial Energy Consumption And
GDP: The Case of Shanghai, 1952–1999”, Energy Economics 26(1), 69–75.
Wolde-Rufael, Y., (2005), “Energy Demand and Economic Growth: the African
experience 19 countries”, Journal of Policy Modeling 27 (8), 891-903.
Wolde-Rufael, Y., (2009), “Energy Consumption and Economic Growth: The Experience
of African Countries Revisited”, Energy Economics 31 (2), 217-224.
Yamada, H. ve Toda, H.Y., (1998), “Inference in Possibly Integrated Vector Autoregressive
Models: Finite Sample Evidence”, Journal of Econometrics 86, 55–95.
Zivot, E. ve Andrews, D.W.K., (1992). Further Evidence On The Great Crash, The
Oil-Price Shock, And The Unit-Root Hypothesis. Journal of Business & Economic
Statistic, 10, 251-270.

Thank you for copying data from http://www.arastirmax.com