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Satın Alma Gücü Paritesinin Geçerliliğinin Test Edilmesi: Zaman Serisi ve Panel Veri Analizi

Test for Validity of Purchasing Power Parity: Time Series and Panel Data Analysis

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Abstract (2. Language): 
Purchasing Power Parity is an important approach to explain relationship between exchange rate and price level. In this case, if purchasing power parity is valid, change in price level between countries offsets equal change in nominal exchange rate. Hence, real exchange rate is mean reversion. For this, test for purchasing power parity, unit root properties of real exchange rate is examined. In this study, real exchange rate series investigates with standard and multiple break unit root tests for Turkey as a time series; with panel unit root test under crosssectionally dependence assumption for AB-27, AB-15, OECD and G-8 countries. Our findings show that purchasing power parity is not valid for Turkey but is valid for AB-27, AB-15, OECD and G-8 countries.
Abstract (Original Language): 
Satın alma gücü paritesi ülkeler arasındaki döviz kuru ve fiyat düzeyi arasındaki ilişkiyi ele alan önemli bir yaklaşımdır. Bu bağlamda, eğer satın alma gücü paritesi geçerli ise ülkeler arasındaki fiyat düzeyinde meydana gelen değişimler, nominal döviz kurunda meydana gelecek değişimler tarafından dengelenecektir. Dolaysıyla reel döviz kuru sabit bir ortalama etrafında dalgalanacaktır. Bunun için, satın alma gücü paritesinin test edilmesi reel döviz kurunun birim kök özelliklerinin incelenmesi ile yapılabilir. Bu çalışmada, zaman serisi olarak Türkiye için reel döviz kuru serisi standart ve çoklu kırılmalı birim kök testleri ile sınanmış; panel veri olarak AB-27, AB-15, OECD ve G-8 ülkeleri için yatay kesit bağımlılığını dikkate alan CADF panel birim kök testleri ile sınama yapılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular, satın alma gücü paritesinin Türkiye ekonomisi için geçerli olmadığını yönünde iken AB-27, AB-15, OECD ve G-8 ülkeleri için geçerli olduğu yönündedir.

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