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Foreign Direct Investment as a Determining Factor in Turkey's Export Performance

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Abstract (2. Language): 
Export growth in Turkey has been much faster than GDP growth over the past few decades. Although in the last several years Turkey has been experiencing a constant growth of both exports and foreign direct investments as a result of marketoriented reform process, often associated with European Union (EU) accession, the export performance as well as the inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI) to Turkey is not satisfactory. Despite increasing inflows of FDI especially in recent years there has not been any attempt to assess its contribution to Turkey’s export performance—one of the channels through which FDI influences growth. Using annual data for 1982–2009 this paper investigates the determinants of Turkey’s export performance in a simultaneous equation framework (3SLS). Results suggest that the real appreciation of the Turkish Lira adversely affects Turkey’s export performance. Export supply is positively related to the domestic relative price of exports while the higher domestic demand reduces export supply. Foreign investment appears to have statistically significant impact on export performance as well as its coefficient has a positive sign. Also, the statistical adequacy of the models used is supported by the following diagnostic tests.

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Appendix: Data sources
Export volume index; International Financial Statistics (CD-ROM), International Monetary
Fund (2010)
Export unit price; index for Turkey and the rest of the world. International Financial Statistics
(CD-ROM), International Monetary Fund (2010).
World income; World Development Indicators (CD-ROM), World Bank (2010)
Real effective exchange rate; International Financial Statistics (CD-ROM), International
Monetary Fund (2010)
Wholesale price index of Turkey; International Financial Statistics (CD-ROM), International
Monetary Fund (2010)
Domestic demand pressure: It is proxied by the gross fiscal deficit of the Central
Government as a percentage of GDP Handbook of Statistics on Turkey Economy, Central
Bank of Turkey (2009).
Foreign direct investment; World Development Indicators (CD-ROM), World Bank (2010).
This is deflated by the Wholesale price index of Turkey, International Monetary Fund (2010)

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