Tarımsal Fiyatlarda Hedefi Aşma Hipotezi: Gelişmiş ve Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler İçin Panel ARDL Analizi*

The overshooting hypothesis in agricultural prices argues that the impact of an expansionary monetary policy on agricultural prices is positive in the short-run and the money is neutral –the increase in agricultural prices is equal to that in money- in the long-run. The purpose of this study is to empirically test the validity of the overshooting hypothesis. The model developed within the context of the theoretical framework was estimated by means of panel ARDL approach which is a panel vector error correction method using the data from one hundred nine developed and developing countries for the period 1980-2007. The short-run analysis supports that the overshooting hypothesis in agricultural prices is hold in both the developed and the developing countries and that the agricultural prices adjust faster than industrial prices to their long-run values. The long-run analysis indicates that the rise in agricultural prices is not equal to the rise in the money supply, implying that the neutrality of the money is not valid. These findings drive important inferences for implications of monetary and agricultural price stabilization policies.