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ARNAVUTLUK BÖLGESİNDE KURAKLIK VE STANDART YAĞIŞ İNDEKSİNİN (SPI) KULLANIMI

DROUGHT AND IMPLEMENTATION OF STANDARDISED PRECIPITATION INDEX (SPI)ON THE ALBANIAN TERRITORY

Journal Name:

  • Gazi Üniversitesi Mühendislik-Mimarlık Fakültesi Dergisi

Publication Year:

  • 2013

Key Words:

Keywords (Original Language):

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Abstract (2. Language): 
Drought is a period of inadequate or no rainfall over extended time creation soil moisture deficit and hydrological imbalances. It is an event with adverse impact on the environment, economy, agriculture, energy, social life etc. The evaluation of drought frequency and its severity is carried out using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). It has become one of most frequently used tools for drought monitoring throughout the world. SPI is based on statistical techniques, which can quantify the degree of wetness by comparing usually 1, 3, 6, 9, 12 or even (sometimes) 24-monthly rainfall totals with the historical rainfall period over the history. The period 1951-2000 is used to evaluate the value of SPI for 1, 3, 6 months. Regarding to the SPI 3 (for three months period) the cases of moderate, severe and extremely dry for every 10 years shows an increasing trend over the period into consideration. These SPI values point out, that period 1981-1990 has the maximum cases with drought (more than 20 cases per decade). During the decade 1961-1970 and 1971-1980 number of cases with moderate, severe and extremely drought is around 10 cases per decade. The year 2003 is one of most distinguished regarding the drought. The values of SPI6 vary from -1.5 in southeast to -4.2 in north of Albania (severe to extremely dry).
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Abstract (Original Language): 
Kuraklık, belirli bir zamanda toprakta nem yetersizliği ve hidrolojik düzensizlik yaratan yetersiz yağış veya yağışsız periyodu ifade eder. Çevre, ekonomi, tarım, enerji ve sosyal yaşam vb. durumlar üzerinde negatif etki yaratan bir etmendir. Kuraklık sıklığı ve şiddetinin değerlendirilmesi için Standartlaştırılmış Yağış Endeksi (Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI)) kullanılmaktadır. SPI, tüm dünyada kuraklık gözlemleme için en sık kullanılan yöntemlerden biridir. SPI, tarih boyunca yağış alma periyoduyla, genellikle 1, 3, 6, 9, 12 veya hatta bazen 24 aylık yağış toplamlarını karşılaştırarak nem derecesini nicelendiren istatistiksel teknikleri esas alır. 1951-2000 periyodu, 1, 3 ve 6 aylık SPI değerlerini değerlendirmek için kullanılır. SPI 3 (3 aylık periyot için) ile ilgili, her 10 yıl için orta, şiddetli ve aşırı derecede kuraklık durumları zaman içinde artan bir trend göstermektedir. Bu SPI değerleri gösteriyor ki; 1881-1990 periyodu kuraklıkla alakalı maksimum durumları göstermektedir (10 yılda 20’den fazla durumda) 1961-1970 ve 1971-1980 periyotları boyunca orta, şiddetli ve aşırı derecede kuraklık durumları 10 kere (10 yıllık periyotta) yaşanmıştır. 2003 yılı kuraklıkla ilgili en dikkat edici yıldır. SPI 6 değerleri Arnavutluk’un güneyinde aşırı kurak olacak şekilde sert _1,5’den, kuzeyinde -4,2’ye değişkenlik gösterir.
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