Buradasınız

Reel Döviz Kuru Belirsizliğinin Ticaret Performansına Etkisi: Türkiye Uygulaması

THE EFFECT OF REAL EXCHANGE RATE UNCERTAINITY ON TRADE PERFORMANCE: THE CASE OF TURKEY

Journal Name:

Publication Year:

Keywords (Original Language):

Author NameUniversity of AuthorFaculty of Author
Abstract (2. Language): 
This study empirically investigates the impact of reel exchange rate uncertainty on Turkey's trade performance. AR-EGARCH method is used to measure real exchange rate uncertainty. Johansen co integration and vector error correction techniques are used to understand the implication of real exchange rate uncertainty for Turkey's export and import, using quarterly data from 1988:01 to 2009:02. The results of empirical indicate that real exchange rate uncertainty has negative effect on export volume, but positive effect on import volume.
Abstract (Original Language): 
Bu çalışmada reel döviz kuru belirsizliğinin Türkiye'nin ticaret performansına etkisi araştırılmıştır. Döviz kuru belirsizliğini ölçmede AR-EGARCH yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Eşbütünleşme ve hata düzeltme tekniği kullanılarak döviz kuru belirsizliği ile dış ticaret arasındaki ilişkiler 1988:01¬2009:02 dönemi üçer aylık veriler kullanılarak araştırılmıştır. Reel döviz kuru belirsizliğinin reel ihracatı negatif, reel ithalatı ise pozitif etkilediği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.
77-97

REFERENCES

References: 

Arize, Augustine C., John Malindretos and Krishna M. Kasibhatla; (2003), "Does Exchange-Rate Volatility Depress Export Flows: The Case of LDC's", International Advances in Economic Research, Vol. 9, N. 1, pp.7-19.
Bailey, Martin J., George S. Tavlas and Michael Ulan; (1986), "Exchange Rate Variability and Trade Performance; Evidence For The Big Seven Industrial Countries", Review of World Economics,V. 122,
N.3, pp.466-477.
Bradley, Kemp Wilson; (2006), "The Links Between Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty and Output Growth: New Time Series Evidence From Japan", Journal of Macroeconomics, V. 28, N. 3, pp.609-620.
Chit, Myint Moe, Marian Rizov, Dirk Willenbockel; (2008), "Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: New Empirical Evidence From The Emerging East Asian Economies", Middlesex University Economics and Statistics Discussion Paper No.127, April, http://www.ssrn.com, (23.07.2009).
Clark, Peter, Natalia Tamirisa, Shang-Jin Wei, Azim Sadikov and Li Zeng; (2004), "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade Flows - Some New Evidence" IMF Working Paper, May 2004.
Cöte, Agathe; (1994), "Exchange Rate Volatılıty and Trade: A Survey", Bank Of Canada Working Paper No 94-5, http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/res/wp/1994/wp94-5.pdf,
(19.04.2009)
Crawford, Allan, Marcel, Kasumovich; (1996), "Does Inflation Uncertainty Vary With The Level of Inflation?" Bank of Canada Working Paper, http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/res/wp/1996/wp96-9.pdf,
(18.12.2007).
De Grauwe, Paul; (1987), "Exchange Rate Variability and The Slowdown in Growth Ofınternational Trade", IMF Working Paper No. 87/38, pp.1-25
Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni; (1999), "Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Trade Flows: Evidence From The European Union" IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 46, N. 3, pp.315-334.
DPT; (2009), Temel Ekonomik Göstergeler, Temmuz,
http://www.dpt.gov.tr, (23.07.2009). Engle, Robert F.; (1982), "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity
With Estimates of The Variance of United Kingdom Inflation"
Econometrica, V. 50, N. 4, pp.377-403. Gujarati, Damodar N.; (2003), Basic Econometrics, Mc Graw-Hill Com. Kasman, Adnan; (2003), "Türkiye'de Reel Döviz Kuru Oynaklığı Ve Bunun
İhracat Üzerine Etkisi: Sektörel Bir Analiz", Uludağ Üniversitesi
İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, Cilt XXII, Sayı 2,
ss.169-186.
Kevin B. Grier Aaron D. Smallwood; (2007), "Uncertainty and Export Performance: Evidence From 18 Countries", Journal of Money,
Credit and Banking, Vol. 39, N. 4, pp. 965-979.
Kin Yip Ho, Albert K.C Tsui; (2004), "Analysis of Real GDP Growth Rates of Greater China: an Asymmetric Conditional Volatility Approach", China Economic Review, 15, pp. 424-442, http://www.sciencedirect.com, (02.01.2008).
Koray, F. and Lastrapes, William D.; (1989), "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and U.S. Bilateral Trade: A VAR Approach", Review of Economics and Statistics, N. 71, pp. 708-712.
Kroner, Kenneth F., William D. Lastrapes; (1993), "The Impact Of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade: Reduced Form Estimates
Using The Garch-in-Mean Model" Journal of International Money
and Finance. Vol. 12, N. 3, pp.298-318.
Lee, Jaewoo; (1999), "The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Trade in Durables" Review of International Economics, .V.7, N.2, pp.189-
201.
Mckenzie Michael D. and Robert D. Brooks; (1997), "The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on German-Us Trade Flows", Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, N.4, pp.73-87.
OECD, Statistics, http://www.oecd.org, (22.07.2009).
Osler, Carol L., and John A. Carlson; (1996), "Rational Speculators and Exchange Rate Volatility", FRB of New York Staff Report No. 13, may, http://www.ssrn.com, (26.03.2009).
Özbay, Pınar; (1999), "The Effect of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on Exports A Case Study For Turkey", The Central Bank of The Republic of Turkey Discussion Paper, March,
http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/research/discus/dpaper36.pdf.(15.12.2008).
Pickard, Joseph C.; (2003), "Exchange Rate Volatility And Bilateral Trade Flows: an Analysis of U.S. Demand For Certain Steel Products From Canada and Mexıco", Master's Thesis, http://scholar.lib.vt.edu/theses/available/etd-06232003-
095319/unrestricted/etd.pdf, (17.02.2009) Qian, Ying and Panos Varangis; (1992), "Does Exchange Rate Volatility
Hinder Export Growth? Additional Evidence" The World Bank
Policy Research Working Paper Series No. 911,
http ://www. worldbank. org, (21.05.2009) Rose, Andrew K.; (2000), "One Money, One Market: The Effect of Common
Currencies on Trade," Economic Policy, N.4, pp.9-45. TCMB; Elektronik Veri Dağıtım Sistemi, http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/,
(23.07.2009)
TÜİK; İstatistikler, http://www.tuik.gov.tr, (22.07.2009)
Tenreyro, Silvana; (2003), "On The Trade Impact of Nominal Exchange Rate Volatility", Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Working Papers,
April, http://www.bos.frb.org/economic/wp/wp2003/wp032.pdf,
(12.03.2009)
Vergil, Hasan; (2002). "Exchange Rate Volatility in Turkey and its Effect on Trade Flows", Journal of Economic and Social Research, V. 4, N. 1,
pp. 83-99,
http://Jesr.Journal.Fatih.Edu.Tr/Exchangeratevolatilityinturkeyandıtseff
ectontrade.Pdf, (15.12.2008).

Thank you for copying data from http://www.arastirmax.com