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Tahmin Kullanıcılarının Hizmetindeki Popüler ve Önemli Bir Araç: 'Yargısal Düzeltmeler'

A POPULAR AND IMPORTANT TOOL FOR FORECAST USERS: JUDGMENTAL ADJUSTMENTS

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Abstract (2. Language): 
Judgmental adjustments' constitute one of the popular and important tools in the arsenal of the forecasting practitioners that facilitate the integration of their judgment into the forecasting process. In the current article, a literature review on this widely used method is provided. The motivation and reasons behind judgmental adjustments are examined followed by the recent concentrations of research on the subject. At the same time, primary research gaps are identified and an agenda for future research is provided.
Abstract (Original Language): 
'Yargısal düzeltmeler', tahmin kullanıcılarının yargılarını tahminleme sürecine katmasına olanak veren popüler ve önemli araçlarıdır. Bu çalışmada, pratisyenler tarafından oldukça yaygın olarak kullanılan bu metot hakkında bir literatür derlemesi yapılmıştır. Yargısal düzeltmelerin altında yatan sebep ve motivasyonlar anlatılmış ve ardından da son yıllarda bu konuyla ilgili yapılan bilimsel araştırmaların yoğunlaştığı alanlar incelenmiştir. Aynı zamanda, varolan araştımalardaki bazı önemli fırsatlar gösterilmiş ve gelecekteki yeni araştırmalar için bir gündem oluşturulmuştur.
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