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MONETARY TRANSMISSION MECHANISM IN AN OPEN ECONOMY FRAMEWORK: THE CASE OF TURKEY

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Abstract (2. Language): 
Monetary transmission mechanism (MTM) is an illuminating policy tool in appreciating the monetary policy implementations by policy makers upon various nominal and real factors of interest in the eyes of economic agents. Especially in an open economy such as Turkish economy highly exposed to the effects of capital flows on domestic business cycles with a liberalised capital account, control over policy aggregates may be difficult since many other economic policy implementations would be of great consequence on some other policy targets on macroeconomic income generation process and in providing price stability and external balance. In this respect, in our paper we aim to estimate the MTM for the Turkish economy. Our ex-post estimates for the period 1992-2004 using contemporaneous vector autoregression models such as impulse response analysis indicate that weakly exogeneous capital inflows appreciate the real effective exchange rate, and in turn lower the real interest rates and domestic inflation while increasing both the real output growth and also the stock exchange index considering an asset-price channel for the latter and vice versa. We find some significant effects of the courses of capital flows and real effective exchange rate on monetary policy variable in the transmission mechanism, and such a case may impose an endogeneous characteristic on the policy variable given also that both domestic real interest structure is highly sensible to the monetary policy and that monetary policy is subject to the structural breaks in the sense of so-called Lucas’ critique of contemporaneous economics.
Abstract (Original Language): 
Parasal aktarım mekanizması politika yapıcılar tarafından gerçekleştirilen para politikası müdahalelerinin parasal ve reel içerikli iktisadi büyüklükler üzerindeki beklenen ve gerçekleşen etkilerini ortaya koymayı amaçlayan önemli bir politika aracı olma işlevine sahiptir. Özellikle Türkiye ekonomisi gibi serbestleştirilmiş bir sermaye hesabına sahip ve yurtiçi iş çevrimleri üzerinde sermaye akımlarının büyük etkisi bulunan bir ekonomide politika büyüklükleri makroekonomik gelir oluşum süreci, fiyat istikrarı ve dış dengenin sağlanması gibi politika hedefleri üzerinde farklı etkiler meydana getirebilmektedir. Bu açıdan kendi çalışmamızda parasal aktarım mekanizması Türkiye ekonomisi koşullarında tahmin edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Çalışmamızda 1992-2004 inceleme döneminde etki tepki çözümlemesi gibi çağdaş vektör ardışık bağlanım tahmin yöntemleri kullanılarak elde ettiğimiz temel politika bulguları kısaca açıklanmak istenirse; zayıf dışsal bir özellik gösteren sermaye girişleri öncelikle reel efektif döviz kurunun değerlenmesine yol açmakta ve bu şekilde hem reel faizlerde hem de yurtiçi enflasyonda bir gerileme meydana getirirken aynı zamanda reel çıktı büyümesinde ve varlık fiyatlaması kanalıyla borsa endeksinde artışına neden olmaktadır. Ayrıca, sermaye akımlarında ve reel efektif döviz kurunda meydana gelen gelişmelerin aktarım mekanizması içerisinde dikkate alınan para politikası değişkeni üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı etkiler meydana getirebildiği gözlenmiş, yurtiçi reel faiz yapısının para politikası gelişmelerine oldukça duyarlı olduğu ve aynı zamanda parasal büyüklüklerin çağdaş iktisat kuramına önemli bir katkı oluşturan Lucas eleştirisinin öncülüğünde yapısal kırılmalara maruz kaldığı bir ekonomik ortam içerisinde bu durumun politika büyüklükleri üzerine içsel bir işlev yükleyebileceği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

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