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TÜRKİYE’DE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME VE KAMU HARCAMALARI ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİNİN AMPİRİK ANALİZİ: 1950 - 2009

An Empirical Analyses of The Relationship Between Economic Growth and Public Expenditures in Turkey: 1950 - 2009

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Abstract (2. Language): 
The relationship between public expenditure and national income, which was first mentioned by Wagner in 1883, has long been debated in economic literature both on theoretical and empirical ground. The purpose of this study is to analyze the validity of Wagner’s law in Turkey by using dataset over 1950-2009 period. The Law states that there is a long-run tendency for public expenditure to grow relative to national income. In case of validity of the Law, causality must run from national income to public expenditure. Empirical results obtained from the cointegration and vector error correction tests indicate that all five versions of the Law that we use in this study support the Law.
Abstract (Original Language): 
İlk kez 1883 yılında Wagner tarafından ifade edilen kamu harcamaları ve ulusal gelir ilişkisi, literatürde uzun süredir hem teorik hem de ampirik alanda tartışma konusu olmuştur. Bu çalışmanın amacı Wagner kanununun Türkiye için geçerliliğini 1950-2009 dönemine ait veriler kullanarak test etmektir. Kanun, uzun dönemde, kamu harcamalarındaki artışın görece ulusal gelirdeki artışa göre daha hızlı olacağını ifade eder. Kanunun geçerli olduğu durumda, nedensellik ilişkisinin ulusal gelirden kamu harcamalarına doğru olması gerekmektedir. Eşbütünleşme ve vektör hata düzeltme yöntemleri kullanarak yaptığımız ampirik sınamada elde ettiğimiz sonuçlar, kanunun ele alınan beş versiyonunda hipotezin geçerli olduğunu göstermektedir.

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