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INVESTIGATION OF LONG-RUN REAL EXCHANGE RATES: THE CASE OF TURKEY

INVESTIGATION OF LONG-RUN REAL EXCHANGE RATES: THE CASE OF TURKEY

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Abstract (2. Language): 
In this study movement of Turkey’s long-run real exchange rates are investigated within the alternative theoretical framework developed by Anwar Shaikh. The basic hypothesis in this model is that, the long run real exchange rates move in such a direction to equalize profit rates, rather than price levels among trading nations which empirically necessitates establishing a cointegration relation among long run real exchange rates, real unit labor cost ratios and real interest rate differentials. Empirical results of this application for the quarterly data of Turkey and her main trade partners spanning from 1970 to 2004 are quite satisfactory.
Abstract (Original Language): 
Bu çalısmada Türkiye’nin uzun dönem reel döviz kurlarının hareketi Anwar Shaikh tarafından gelistirilmis olan alternatif teorik çerçeve içinde incelenmistir. Ampirik olarak; uzun dönem reel döviz kurları, reel birim emek maliyet rasyoları ve reel faiz oranları arasında kointegrasyon iliskisinin kurulmasını gerektiren bu modelin temel hipotezi, uzun dönem reel döviz kurlarının ticaret yapan ülkeler arasında fiyat düzeylerinden ziyade kar oranlarını esitleyecek yönde hareket ettiğidir. Türkiye’nin 1970’ den 2004’e uzanan çeyrek dönemlik verileri için yapılmıs olan bu uygulamanın ampirik sonuçları oldukça tatmin edicidir.
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