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Çokal Barajı (Çanakkale) çökme modeli ve taşkın risk analizi

Çokal Dam-break model and flood risk analysis (Çanakkale)

Journal Name:

  • Uluslararası İnsan Bilimleri Dergisi

Publication Year:

  • 2011

Key Words:

Keywords (Original Language):

Author NameUniversity of Author
Abstract (2. Language): 
The source of the hazard which is the main factor of disasters can be made by naturally or man. These are generally independent sources, but sometimes reason of one hazard such as flood can be both naturally and man-made. Certainly, all examples in our country and the world show that, the fail of constructed structures on the rivers (e.g. dam, embankment) produce a very large amount of water and damage more than the normal river floods. In this study, based on cofferdam of Çokal Dam breaching which occurred in 16 November 2007 on the Kavak River (Çanakkale), 1D modeling of probable Çokal Dam break take in the account tectonic properties of the area and analyzing of the flood risk have been done. For these purposes, Digital Elevation Model (DEM) gathered contours from 1:25000 scaled topographic maps and GPS points, high and medium resolution satellite images, hydrological soil data gathered from soil maps scaled 1:25000, precipitation and discharge data in 30 years, technical properties of structures on the Kavak River and field measurement have been used as a database. All these data is processed and analyzed using Geographic Information System (GIS), Hec-GeoRAS and HEC-RAS hydraulic models and hydrologic model. Hence, Çokal Dam break modeling based on cofferdam breach modeling reveals that probable flood after the dam-break will affect Evreşe Plain and the people which get livelihood from the plain. General probable lost in agricultural product after probable flood reaches TL 12 million. Thus, as a result of human interventions to the nature will cause great harm to himself again.
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Abstract (Original Language): 
Afetlerin oluşmasında önemli etkiye sahip tehlikeler, doğa kaynaklı olabildikleri gibi insan kaynaklı da olabilmektedir. Bunlar genelde birbirinden bağımsız tehlike türleri iken bazen taşkınlar gibi kaynağını hem doğadan hem insandan alan tehlikeler olarak da karşımıza çıkmaktadır. Şüphesiz ki ülkemizdeki ve dünyadaki örneklerin tamamı ortaya koymuştur ki, insan kaynaklı olarak akarsular üzerine inşa edilen yapıların (baraj, set vb.) bir şekilde zarar görmesiyle sonuçları normal taşkınlardan da fazla olmuştur. Bu çalışmada, 16 Kasım 2007’de Kavak Deresi (Çanakkale) üzerindeki Çokal Barajı memba batardosunda meydana gelen çökmenin oluşturduğu taşkına bağlı olarak, günümüz itibariyle halen yapımına devam edilen Çokal Barajı’nın sahanın tektonik özellikleri de göz önünde tutularak, olası çökmesinin tek boyutlu (1D) hidrolik modellemesi yapılmış ve buna bağlı taşkın risk analizi gerçekleştirilmiştir. Çalışmada altlık verileri, 1:25000 ölçekli topografik eşyükselti eğrisi ve saha GPS verileriyle üretilmiş Sayısal Yükselti Modeli (SYM), yüksek ve orta çözünürlüklü uydu görüntüleri, hidrolojik toprak verileri, 30 yıllık yağış ve akım verileri, Kavak Dere üzerindeki yapılara ait teknik özellikler ve arazi ölçümleri oluşturmaktadır. Bütün bu altlık veriler Coğrafi Bilgi Sistemleri (CBS), Hec-GeoRAS ve HECRAS hidrolik modelleri ve hidrolojik modellerde kullanılmış ve analiz edilmiştir. Sonuç olarak, memba batardosu çökme modeli temelinde oluşturulan Çokal Barajı çökme modeli göstermiştir ki, olası baraj çökmesi sonucunda oluşacak taşkın, Evreşe Ovası ve buradan geçimini sağlayan insanlar için büyük zararlar ortaya çıkartacaktır. Sadece tarım ürünleri üzerindeki genel tahmini kayıplar 12 milyon TL yi bulmaktadır. Böylelikle insanın doğaya yapmış olduğu müdahale sonucunda yine insanın kendisi büyük zararlar görecektir.
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