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MAKROEKONOMIK KIRILGANLIK: TÜRKİYE VE ŞANGAY BEŞLİSİ KARŞILAŞTIRMASI

MACROECONOMIC VULNERABILITY : A COMPARISON BETWEEN TURKEY AND SHANGHAI FIVE

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DOI: 
http://dx.doi.org/10.11611/JMER563

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Abstract (2. Language): 
Macroeconomic vulnerability which is one of the different vulnerability categories states the risk of being fregile to the unpredictable domestic and foreign economic events. So, it is absolutely different from other vulnerability categories. At first, vulnerability concept was used to define the structural vulnerabilities of the small island countries. But then, because of an increase in financial crisis and global macroeconomic instability, vulnerability has become popular. In this context, a lot of indexes has been created and used. The indexes created recently has emphasized that Turkey is among the most vulnerable countries. This situation encouraged us to understand Turkey's vulnerability position and compare it with Shanghai Five countries. By the result, Turkey is vulnerable about current account deficit and domestic credit growth. The purpose of this paper is to compare the vulnerabilities of Turkey and Shanghai Five and develop a policy for Turkey.
Abstract (Original Language): 
Farklı kırılganlık türleri arasında yer alan makroekonomik kırılganlık, bir ülkenin temel makro göstergelerinin, öngörülemeyen iç ve dış olaylardan dolayı olumsuz etkilenme riskini ifade etmesi nedeniyle diğer kırılganlık türlerinden ayrılmaktadır. İlk olarak küçük ada ülkelerinin yapısal kırılganlıklarını belirlemeye yönelik olarak kullanılan kırılganlık kavramı, krizlerin artması ve global ekonomideki istikrarsızlıklar nedeniyle ön plana çıkmaya başlamıştır. Bu bağlamda makroekonomik kırılganlığı belirlemeye yönelik birçok indeks oluşturulmuştur. Son yıllarda oluşturulan indekslerde Türkiye 'ye en kırılgan ülkeler arasında yer verilmesi, Türkiye 'nin kırılganlığını anlamak ve Şangay Beşlisi ile karşılaştırmak için oluşturulan çalışmanın itici gücü olmuştur. Yapılan karşılaştırmanın sonucuna göre, Türkiye'nin kırılganlığına yol açan hususlar, cari açık ve yurtiçi kredi büyümesi olarak belirlenmiştir. Bu çalışmanın amacı makroekonomik kırılganlık konusunda Türkiye ve Şangay Beşlisi ülkelerini karşılaştırarak, Türkiye için politika önerileri sunmaktır.

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