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TÜRKİYE’DE MİLLİ GELİR-KREDİ İLİŞKİSİNİN AMPİRİK ANALİZİ

AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF OUTPUT-CREDIT RELATIONSHIP IN TURKEY

Journal Name:

  • Yönetim ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi

Publication Year:

  • 2013
DOI: 
http://dx.doi.org/10.11611/JMER186

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Abstract (2. Language): 
With the latest global financial crisis, the debate about the role of credit in affecting output has intensified. In this respect, it has become necessary to investigate output-credit relationship for Turkey. In this paper, we aim to analyze the empirical relationship between output and credit by employing different econometric techniques. First, we employed cross correlation, regression and VAR analysis. Following this, we used Bounds test approach in order to investigate cointegration relationship between output and credit. Then, ARDL approach is employed with the purpose of investigating the long and short- term static relationship between output and credit. The results show that output leads credit in Turkey. Credit responds significantly to an output shock, but not vice versa. According to Bounds Test results, we have found a significant long run cointegration relationship between output and credit. ARDL model results show that credit coefficients are not significant but error correction mechanism works.
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Abstract (Original Language): 
Son küresel finansal krizle birlikte, kredilerin milli gelir üzerindeki etkisine ilişkin tartışmalar hızlanmıştır. Bu çerçevede, Türkiye’de milli gelir-kredi ilişkisini inceleme gereği ortaya çıkmıştır. Bu çalışmada, milli gelir ve kredi arasındaki ampirik ilişkinin farklı ekonometrik yöntemler kullanılarak incelenmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Öncelikle, çapraz korelasyon, regresyon ve VAR analizi yapılmıştır. Ardından, Bounds testi yaklaşımıyla milli gelir ve krediler arasındaki eşbütünleşme ilişkisi incelenmiştir. Daha sonra, milli gelir ve krediler arasındaki kısa ve uzun dönemli ilişkinin statik olarak incelenmesi amacıyla ARDL yaklaşımı kullanılmıştır. Sonuçlar Türkiye’de milli gelirin kredileri öncülediğini ortaya koymuştur. Krediler milli gelir şokuna anlamlı bir biçimde tepki gösterirken tersi durum geçerli değildir. Bounds testi sonuçlarına göre, milli gelir ve krediler arasında uzun dönemli eşbütünleşme ilişkisi bulunmuştur. ARDL modeli sonuçları kredi katsayılarının anlamlı olmadığını, fakat hata düzeltme mekanizmasının işlediği göstermektedir.
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  • Turkish

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