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2008 KÜRESEL EKONOMİK KRİZİNİN DOĞRUDAN YATIRIMLAR ÜZERİNE ETKİSİ VE DOĞRUDAN YATIRIM AKIMLARI İLE İÇSEL FAKTÖRLERİN NEDENSELLİĞİ TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

EFFECTS OF 2008 GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS ON DIRECT INVESTMENTS AND CAUSALITY BETWEEN DIRECT INVESTMENTS FLOW AND INTERNAL FACTORS: EVIDENCE FROM TURKEY

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Abstract (2. Language): 
This article attempts to determine two aims. First, examine if structural shift exist in the direct investments of Turkey because of the 2008 global economic crisis. Second; determine the causality between direct investments and internal macro economic factors of Turkey. More clearly, taking into consideration that Turkey has become more integrated with the global financial system last years, the direct investments situation is to be analyzed both from the perspective of 2008 global economic crises and in relation with the internal fundamental economic variables such as industrial production, exchange rates, consumer confidence index and inflation rate. In the study, using the methodology of Zivot Andrews structural break and Granger Causality tests, results show that foreign direct investments of Turkey have been affected by the 2008 global economic crisis, whereas outflow of direct investments not. In addition it has been found Granger causality between direct investments and exchange rates, industrial production and consumer confidence index.
Abstract (Original Language): 
Bu çalışmada iki temel amaç hedeflenmektedir. Birincisi 2008 küresel ekonomik krizi Türkiye'nin direk yatırımlarında yapısal bir değişim meydana getirip getirmediğini araştırmaktır. İkincisi, Türkiye'nin makro ekonomik verileriyle direk yatırımları arasında nedensellik ilişkisinin varlığını ortaya koymaktır. Daha açık bir şekilde ifade edilirse Türkiye'nin direk yatırımları, son yıllardaki finansal sisteme entegrasyonunun artması dikkate alınarak, hem 2008 küresel ekonomik kriz perspektifinde hem de endüstriyel üretim, döviz kurları, tüketici güven endeksi ve enflasyon gibi makro ekonomik değişkenlerle ilişkileriyle analiz edilmiştir. Zivot Andrews yapısal değişim ve Granger Nedensellik test yöntemlerinin kullanıldığı çalışmada, sonuçlar Türkiye'nin doğrudan yabancı yatırımlarının küresel krizden etkilendiğini gösterirken, Türkiye'den yurt dışına yapılan direk yatırımların etkilenmediğini göstermektedir. Buna ek olarak direk yatırımlar ile döviz kurları, endüstriyel üretim endeksi ve tüketici güven endeksi arasında Granger nedensellik ilişkileri bulunmuştur.

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