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DÖVİZ KURU RİSKI TÜRKIYE`NIN İHRACATINI AZALTIR MI? HATA DOĞRULAMA YÖNTEMI ILE BIR AMPIRIK DEĞERLENDIRME

DOES EXCHANGE RATE RISK IMPEDE TURKISH EXPORTS? AN EMPIRICAL EVALUATION WITH ERROR CORRECTION METHOD

Journal Name:

  • Zonguldak Karaelmas Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi

Publication Year:

  • 2006

Key Words:

Keywords (Original Language):

Author NameUniversity of AuthorFaculty of Author
Abstract (2. Language): 
This paper examines the effect of exchange rate risk on Turkey’s aggregate and sectoral exports using quarterly data during the period of 1980 to 2001. The variables include in the model are total and sectoral exports, real exchange rate, export weighted income of foreign countries and exchange rate risk. In the first step, stationary nature of the variables are investigated and it is found that all series are integrated of order one. In the second step, multivariate cointegration technique and the error correction modeling is applied. The empirical results showed that exchange rate risk effects total and sectoral exports negatively. If Turkey enters EU, due to single currency, exchange rate risk will vanish in Turkey-EU trade, also exchange rate risk will be low in Turkey non-EU countries trade since hedging is more useful for between euro and other currencies. This study suggests that joining EU results in low exchange rate risk will increase Turkey’ export capacity with EU and non-EU countries. Because, exchange rate risk is an important obstacle for Turkish exporter that do trade with low profits and limited domestic market.
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Abstract (Original Language): 
Bu çalışmada, döviz kuru riskinin Türkiye’nin toplam ve sektörel ihracatı üzerindeki etkisi 1980-2001 arası döneme ait üç aylık veri kullanarak araştırılmıştır. Modelde kullanılan değişkenler toplam ve sektörlere ait ihracat, reel döviz kuru, dış ülkelerin ihracat paylarına göre ağırlıklı gelirleri ve döviz kuru riskidir. İlk aşamada tüm değişkenlerin durağan olup olmadığı araştırılmış ve serilerin durağan olmadıkları, birinci dereceden entegre oldukları ortaya çıkmıştır. İkinci aşamada çoklu koentegrasyon ve hata doğrulama modeli uygulanmıştır. Ampirik sonuçlar göstermiştir ki, döviz kuru riski toplam ve sektörel ihracatı, negatif yönde etkilemektedir. Eğer Türkiye Avrupa Birliğine girerse, tek bir para birimi kullanılacağından, AB üyeleri ile olan ticarette döviz kuru riski olmayacak, bunun yanı sıra AB dışındaki ülkelerle yapılan ticarette, Euro için "hegding" yapma daha kolay olduğundan, döviz kuru riski düşük olacaktır. Bu çalışma göstermiştir ki, AB’ye girmekle azalacak olan döviz kuru riski, Türkiye’nin ihracat kapasitesini hem AB ile hem AB dışı ülkelerle olan ticarette artıracaktır. Çünkü, döviz kuru ris
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  • 3
71-84
  • Turkish

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