You are here

TİCARİ SERBESTLEŞME-EKONOMİK BÜYÜME İLİŞKİSİNİN BOOTSTRAP KANTİL REGRESYON YARDIMIYLA ANALİZİ

Journal Name:

Publication Year:

Abstract (2. Language): 
The concept of globalization, which is used in many fields today, also affects a large part of our lives. Globalization has led to the elimination of national borders’ effect on the circulation of production factors and a world scale market has been formed. Trade liberalization forms an important part of globalization. Every economy adopts varios levels of trade liberalazition policies based on their economies’ structural characteristis. Trade liberalization levels of countries are measured by their level of openness. The aim of this study is to identify the degree to which level of trade openness has affected economic growth. The analysis processes the data of 1998Q1 to 2011Q4 quarterly data by using Bootstrap quantile regression method. The results of the study conclude that trade openness has bootsing effect on the economic growth and that the results are statistically significant.
Abstract (Original Language): 
Günümüzde birçok alanda sıklıkla kullanılan küreselleşme kavramı, hayatımızın geniş bir alanını etkilemektedir. Küreselleşme ile birlikte üretim faktörleri dolaşımı önündeki ulusal sınırlar etkisini kaybetmekte ve dünya ölçeğinde büyük bir pazar oluşmaktadır. Ticari serbestleşme küreselleşmenin önemli bir yapı taşını oluşturmaktadır. Her ekonomi yapısal özelliklerine göre çeşitli düzeylerde ticari serbestleşme politikaları uygulamaktadır. Ülkelerin ticari serbestleşme düzeyi, ticari açıklık seviyesiyle ölçülmektedir. Çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’nin ticari açıklık seviyesinin ekonomik büyümeyi ne yönde ve derecede etkilediğinin belirlenmesidir. Analizde, 1998.Q1-2011. Q4 çeyrek dönemlik veriler ile “Bootstrap Kantil Regresyon” yöntemi uygulanmış, ticari açıklığın büyüme üzerinde arttırıcı istatistik anlamlı bir etkisi olduğu belirlenmiştir.
FULL TEXT (PDF): 
283-303

JEL Codes:

REFERENCES

References: 

ADES, F. Alberto, Edward L. GLAESER (1999), “Evidence on Growth,
Increasing Returns, And The Extent of The Market”, The Quarterly Journal
of Economics, Vol. 144, No. 3, 1999, pp.1025-1045.
ATİK, Hayriye (2006), Beşeri Sermaye, Dış Ticaret ve Ekonomik
Büyüme, Bursa, Ekin Kitapevi.
BAUR, D.,SAISANA, M., NIELS, N. (2004), “Modelling The Effects
of Meteorological Variables on Ozone Concentration a Quantile Regression
Approach”, Atmospheric Environment,vol:38, No.28, pp. 4689–4699.
BAYRAKTUTAN, Yusuf (2003), “Bilgi ve Uluslararası Ticaret Teorile299
Hasan Alp ÖZEL, Funda SEZGİN
ri”, Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İktisadi İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi,
Cilt 4, Sayı 2, ss. 175-186.
BEHR, A., (2008), “Quantile Regression for Robust Bank Efficiency
Score Estimation”, European Journal of Operational Research, vol:200,
No: 2, pp. 568–581.
BERG, Andrew, Anne, KRUEGER (2003), “Trade, Grow, and Poverty-
A Selective Survey”, Annual World Bank Conference on Development
Economics, The New Reform Agenda, Ed. Boris Pleskovic, Nicholas
Stern, The World Bank and Oxford University Press, pp. 47-90.
CAMINIS, Asimina (2007), “Fakir Ülkelerin Dünya Ticaret Sistemine
Entegre Edilmesi”, Çev. Bahar Burtan Doğan, Elektronik Sosyal Bilimler
Dergisi, Sayı 20, ss. 177-195.
CHANG, Roberto, Linda KALTANI, Norman V. LOAYZA (2009),
“Openness Can Be Good For Growth: The Role of Policy Complementarities”,
Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 90, Issue 1, pp. 33-49.
COLIN Chen, (2011), “An Introduction to Quantile Regression and the
QUANTREG Procedure”, SAS Institute Inc., Paper No: 213-30, pp.1-24.
ÇAKMAK, Özge, Aynagöz (2006), “Türkiye ile Almanya, İtalya, Fransa
ve İngiltere Arasında İmalat Endüstrisinde Endüstri İçi Ticaretin Yapısı:
1991-2004”, Ekonomik ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, Cilt: 3, Yıl: 2,
Sayı: 1, s. 30-47.
DİKKAYA, Mehmet, Fatih DENİZ (2006), “Ekonomik Küreselleşmenin
Yol Açtığı Problemler: Teorik Bir Bakış”, ZKÜ Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi,
Cilt 2, Sayı 3, ss. 163-181.
DİNLER, Zeynel (2009), İktisada Giriş, 15. Basım, Bursa, Ekin Basım
Yayın Dağıtım.
DOLAR, David (1992), “Outward-Oriented Developing Economies
Really do Grow More Rapidly: Evidence from 95 LDCs, 1976-1985”,
Economic Development &Cultural Change, Vol. 40, Issue 3, pp. 523-544.
DUTTAGUPTA, Rupa, Montfort MLACHILA (2008), “What is Really
300 Ticari Serbestleşme - Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisinin Bootstrap Kantil
Regresyon Yardımıyla Analizi
Good for Long-Term Growth? Lessons from a Binary Classification Tree
(BCT) Approach”, IMF WorkingPaper WP/08/263, Western Hemisphere
Department, International MonetaryFund, pp. 1-27.
EDWARDS, Sebastian (1998), “Openness, Productivity and Growth:
What do We Really Know?” The Economic Journal, Vol. 108, No. 447,
pp. 383-398.
EDWARDS, Sebastian (1992), “Trade Orientations, Distortions and
Growth in Developing Countries”, Journal of Development Economics,
Vol. 39, Issue 1, pp. 31-57.
EMİRHAN, P. Narin (2008), “Türk Dış Ticaretinin Alternatif Modeller
Açısından Değerlendirilmesi (1982-2000)”, Ege Akademik Bakış Dergisi,
Cilt: 8, Sayı: 28, ss. 861-875.
GIOVANNI Juliandi, Andrei A. LEVCHENKO (2009), “Trade Openness
and Volatility”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 91, No. 3,
pp. 558-585.
GROSSMAN, M. Gene, Elhanan HELPMAN (1990), “Trade, knowledge
Spillovers, and Growth”, National Bureau of Economic Research, NBER
WorkingPaper No. 3485, pp. 1-12.
GROSSMAN, M. Gene, Elhanan HELPMAN (1989), “Product Development
and International Trade”, The Journal of Political Economy, Vol.
97, No. 6, pp. 1261-1283.
GUTTMANN, Simon, Anthony RICHARDS (2006), “Trade Openness:
An Australian Perspective”, Australian Economic Papers, Vol. 45,
Issue 3, pp. 188-203.
HELPMAN, Elhanan (1987), “Inperfect Competition and International
Trade: Evidence from Fourteen Industrial Countries”, Journal of the Japaneseand
International Economies, Vol. 1, Issue 1, pp. 62-81.
KARLUK, S. Rıdvan (2009), Uluslararası Ekonomi Teori Politika,
İstanbul, Beta Basım A.Ş.
KEESING, B. Donald (1965), “Labor Skills and International Trade:
301
Hasan Alp ÖZEL, Funda SEZGİN
Evaluating Many Trade Flows with a Single Measuring Device”, The Review
of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 47, No. 3, pp. 287-294.
KJELDSEN-KRAGH, Soren (2002), International Economics, Copenhagen
Business School Press.
KOENKER, R. (2005), Quantile Regression, Econometric Society Monographs,
Cambridge University Press.
KNUTH, D. E (1969), “Seminumerical Algorithms”, The Art of Computer
Programming, Volume 2, No. 1, Boston: Addison Wesley.
LEE, Jong-Wha (1993), “International Trade, Distortions, and Long-Run
Economic Growth”, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 40, No.2, pp. 299-328.
LEWER, J. Joshua (2002), “International Trade Composition and
Medium-Run Growth: Evidence of a Causal Relationship”, The International
Trade Journal, Vol. 16, Issue 3, pp. 295-317.
LOKO, Boileau, Mame, Astou DIOUF (2009), “Revisiting the Determinants
of Productivity Growth: What’s New?”, IMF Working Paper
WP/09/225, Middle East and Central Asia Department, International Monetary
Fund, pp. 1-29.
MARKUNSEN, R. James (2005),“The Boundaries of Multinational Enterprises
and the Theory of International Trade”, The Journal of Economic
Perspectives, Vol. 9, No.2, pp. 169-189.
MILNER, Chris, Oliver MORRISSEY, Evious ZGOVU (2008), “Trade
Facilitation in Developing Countries” CREDIT Research Paper No.
08/05, Centre for Research in Economic Development and International
Trade, University of Nottingham, pp. 1-34.
ÖZEL, H. Alp (2012), “Küreselleşme Sürecinde Ticari ve Finansal
Açıklığın Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerine Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği”, Yönetim
Bilimleri Dergisi, Cilt:10, Sayı: 19, ss.21-43.
ÖZTÜRK, Nazım (2009), Dış Ticaret Kuram Politika Uygulama,
Ankara, Palme Yayıncılık.
PANAGARIYA, Arvind (2004), “Miracles and Debacles: In Defence
302 Ticari Serbestleşme - Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisinin Bootstrap Kantil
Regresyon Yardımıyla Analizi
of Trade Openness”, The World Economy, Vol. 27, Issue 8, pp. 1149-
1171.
PORTER, E. Michael (1990), “The Competitive Advantage of Nations”,
Harvard Business Review, March-April, pp. 73-91.
RICARDO, David (1817), Principles of Political Economy and Taxation,
London, Elecbook Classics, Released 1817, Republished 2001, The
Electric Book Company Ltd.
RODEIGUES, Francisco, Dani RODRIK (2000), “Trade Policy and
Economic Growth: A Skeptic’s Guide to the Cross-National Evidence”,
NBER/MacroeconomicsAnnual (MIT Pres), Vol. 15, Issue 1, pp. 261-325.
SAÇIK, Y. Sinem (2009), “Dış Ticaret Politikası ve Ekonomik Büyüme
İlişkisi: Teorik Açıdan Bir İnceleme”, KMÜ İİBF Dergisi, Yıl: 11, Sayı
16, ss. 162-171.
SEYİDOĞLU, Halil (2009), Uluslararası İktisat, 17. Baskı, İstanbul,
Güzem Yayınları No. 24.
SPILIMBERGO, Antonio, Juan Luis LONDONO, Miguel SZEKELY
(2003), “Income Distribution, Factor Endowments, and Trade Openness”,
Toward Pro-Poor Policies Aid, Institutions, and Globalization, Annual
World Bank Conference on Development Economics Europe, Ed. Bertil
Tungodden, Nicholas Stern, Ivar Kolstad, The World Bank, pp. 291-313.
TUPY, L. Marian (2005), Trade Liberalization and Poverty Reduction
in Sub-Saharan Africa, CATO Institute Press, Policy Analysis No.
557.
UTKULU, Utku, Durmuş ÖZDEMİR (2004), “Does Trade Liberalization
Cause a Long Run Economic Growth in Turkey”, Economics of Planning,
Vol. 37, No. 3-4, pp. 245-266.
VERNON, Raymond (1966), “International Investment and Internatonal
Trade in the Product Cycle”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol.
80, No. 2, pp. 190-207.
WINTERS, L. Alan, Neil MCCULLOCH, Andrew MCKAY (2004),
303
Hasan Alp ÖZEL, Funda SEZGİN
“Trade Liberalization and Poverty: The Evidence So Far”, Journal of
Economic Literature, Vol. 42, No. 1, pp. 71-115.
YILMAZ, Durmuş (2009), Dış Ticarette Yapısal Dönüşüm: Küresel
Dinamikler ve Türkiye Ekonomisi Açılış Konuşması, İstanbul, Türkiye
Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası.

Thank you for copying data from http://www.arastirmax.com