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Kamu Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki ĠliĢki: Kırgızistan Örneği

Cointegration and Causality between Public Expenditure and Economic Growth: Case of Kyrgyzstan

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Abstract (2. Language): 
According to Wagner‟s law there is unidirectional relationship from economic growth to public expenditure. Wagner‟s states that increase of national income leads to faster growth of public expenditure. In other words, out of economic and social development in the country, people will demand more public goods and it will increase public expenditure at a faster rate than national income. This study is analyzing the long term and causality relationship between public expenditure and economic growth in Kyrgyzstan and tests the validity of Wagner's law in Kyrgyz economy by using an ARDL and Error Correction models over the period 1995 to 2014. Empirical results showed that there is an unidirectional causality relationship between economic growth and public expenditure in long term. Empirical evidence is support the validity of Wagner‟s law in Kyrgyz economy.
Abstract (Original Language): 
Wagner kanununa göre ekonomik büyüme ile kamu harcamaları arasında tek yönlü bir ilişki bulunmaktadır. Milli gelirin artması kamu harcamalarının daha büyük bir oranda artmasına neden olacaktır. Diğer bir ifadeyle, ülkede ortaya çıkan sosyal ve ekonomik gelişme birlikte kişilerin kamusal mallara olan talebi de artmakta, bu da kamu harcamalarının milli gelirin artış hızından daha da yüksek oranda artması ile sonuçlanmaktadır. Bu çalışmada Kırgızistan‟da ekonomik büyüme ile kamu harcamaları arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişki ve nedensellik incelenmiştir. ARDL ve Hata Düzeltme modelleri yardımıyla Kırgızistan ekonomisinde Wagner kanununun geçerliliği test edilmiştir. Çalışmada 1995-2014 dönemini kapsayan yıllık veriler kullanılmıştır. Ampirik bulgular Kırgızistan‟da ekonomik büyüme ile kamu harcamaları arasında uzun dönemde tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkinin bulunduğunu ve Wagner kanununun Kırgız ekonomisi için geçerli olduğunu göstermektedir.

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REFERENCES

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