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Ekonomik Büyüme ile İmalat Sanayi İstihdam ve Elektrik Tüketimi Arasında Nedensellik Analizi: Türkiye Örneği

CAUSALITY ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH, ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION AND EMPLOYMENT IN MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY: EXAMPLES OF TURKEY

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Abstract (2. Language): 
In this study, we investigate casual relationship between GNP, electricity consumption and employment in manufacturing industry. To investigate the stationarity nature of the time series Augmented Dickey Fuller and Dickey Fuller – GLS unit root test to see are conducted. To examine relationship between variables Toda – Yamamoto and Dolado – Lüktepohl causality tests are used. The results of Lee – Strazicich unit root test showed that there are structural breaks in 90‟s for each variables. However, the causality analysis of Dolado – Lüktepohl and Toda – Yamamoto imply that there has been a causality running from employment in manufacturing industry to gross national product and from gross national product to electricity consumption in manufacturing industry.
Abstract (Original Language): 
Bu çalıĢmada GSMH ile imalat sektörü elektrik tüketimi ve istihdam arasındaki nedensellik iliĢkisi incelenmiĢtir. Zaman serilerinin durağanlık Ģartlarına uyum gösterip göstermediği Augmented Dickey Fuller ve Dickey Fuller – GLS birim kök testleri ile analiz edilmiĢtir. Toda – Yamamoto ve Dolado – Lütkepohl nedensellik testleri değiĢkenler arasındaki iliĢkiyi analiz etmek için kullanılmıĢtır. Lee – Strazicich birim kök testleri sonucunda her bir değiĢken için 90‟lı yıllara ait yapısal kırılmalar olduğu elde edilmiĢtir. Bununla birlikte, nedensellik testleri imalat sektörü istihdam seviyesinden GSMH‟ye doğru ve GSMH‟den imalat sanayi elektrik tüketimine doğru bir nedensellik iliĢksinin olduğu sonucu elde edilmiĢtir.
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