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TÜRKİYE’DE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME VE DÖVİZ KURU CARİ AÇIK ÜZERİNDE ETKİLİ MİDİR? BİR NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ

DO ECONOMIC GROWTH AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES HAVE EFFECTS ON THE CURRENT DEFICIT IN TURKEY? A CAUSALITY ANALYSIS

Journal Name:

  • Zonguldak Karaelmas Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi

Publication Year:

  • 2007

Key Words:

Keywords (Original Language):

Author NameUniversity of AuthorFaculty of Author
Abstract (2. Language): 
Economic growth and exchange rate variables are discussed along with the causality of current account deficit in Turkey. However, although these two variables are considered as the reasons of current account deficit, the causality relationship between them could not be displayed empirically. In this study, we tried to examine the causality dimension of current account deficit using the data of Turkey’s GDP, real effective exchange rate and current account balance for the period between 1987:01 and 2006:03. According to the test results obtained in the framework of Toda and Yamamoto (1995) causality analysis, there exists one way causality from both economic growth and exchange rate to current account deficit. On the other hand, the expected causality relationship from current account deficit to economic growth and exchange rate could not be found.
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Abstract (Original Language): 
Türkiye’de cari açığın nedenselliği ile ilgili yapılan tartışmaların eksenin de ekonomik büyüme ve döviz kuru değişkenleri bulunmaktadır. Ancak bu iki değişkenin cari açığın nedeni olduğuna dair görüşler ortaya atılmasına rağmen aralarındaki nedensellik ilişkisi ampirik olarak ortaya konulmamıştır. Bu çalışmada Türkiye’nin 1987:01 – 2006:03 dönemlerine ait GSYİH, reel efektif döviz kuru ve cari işlemler dengesi verileri kullanılarak cari açığın nedensellik boyutu incelenmeye çalışılmıştır. Toda ve Yamamoto (1995) nedensellik analizi çerçevesinde bulunan test sonuçlarına göre hem ekonomik büyüme hem de döviz kuru cari açığın nedenidir. Diğer taraftan cari açıktan ekonomik büyümeye ve döviz kuruna doğru ise beklendiği gibi bir nedensellik bulunmamıştır.
FULL TEXT (PDF): 
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  • 6
81-88
  • Turkish

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