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Kelkit Çayının Günlük Ekstrem Akımları için Stokastik Modelleme

Stochastic Modeling for The Daily Extreme Flows of Kelkit Stream

Journal Name:

  • Gaziosmanpaşa Üniversitesi Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi

Publication Year:

  • 2002

Key Words:

Keywords (Original Language):

Author NameUniversity of AuthorFaculty of Author
Abstract (2. Language): 
The aim of this study is to determine whether the daily extreme flows for Kelkit Stream could be forecast as a stochastic model. For this aim, the autoregressive models (the first and second order Markov models) and Arima(l.O.l) model (mixed autoregressive-moving average model) were used. The flows forecasted by using the models mentioned were compared to the observed flows. The results showed that the flow predictions based on the first order Markov model are fitted to the data better than the other models.
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Abstract (Original Language): 
Bu çalışmanın amacı, Kelkit çayı günlük ekstrem akımlarının stokastik bir modelle tahmin edilebilirliğini belirlemek içindir. Bu amaçlaotoregresif modeller (birinci ve ikinci derece Markov modelleri) ve Arima(l.l) model (otoregresif-hareketli ortalama) kullanılmıştır. Adı geçen modeller kullanılarak tahmin edilen akımların gözlenen akımlar ile karşılaştırılması yapılmıştır. Sonuçlar, birinci derece Markov modelden elde edilen akım tahminlerinin, veriye diğer modellerden daha fazla uyum sağladığını göstermiştir.
FULL TEXT (PDF): 
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  • 1
119-127
  • Turkish

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