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TÜRKİYE'DE DOĞRUDAN YABANCI YATIRIMLAR (DYY) VE YURTİÇİ YATIRIMLAR ARASINDAKİ NEDENSELLİK İLİŞKİSİ

The Casual Relationship between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Domestic Investments in Turkey

Journal Name:

  • Hitit Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi

Publication Year:

  • 2010

Key Words:

Keywords (Original Language):

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Abstract (2. Language): 
While it is expected that inward FDI increases the capital stock of a country, it is possible to lower it. In case of the first situation the complementary feature of the FDI is in place, in case of the second case FDI substitutes domestic investment. Inward FDI could facilitate domestic investments. In this study, direction of the causality relationship between FDI and domestic investments have been studied. In this context, Granger casualty tests, VAR parameter forecasting analysis, impulse response function, and variance decomposition methods have been used. The accurate result obtained from this analysis is that past values of domestic investments positively affect the FDI movements in present period. It is concluded, against the expectations that the direction of the causality relationship between FDI and domestic investments is not from FDI towards domestic investments but it is from domestic investments towards FDI.
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Abstract (Original Language): 
Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımların (DYY) geldikleri ülkedeki toplam yatırımları arttırmaları beklenirken azaltmaları da mümkündür. Birinci durumda DYYın tamamlayıcılık özellikleri ortaya çıkarken ikinci durumda ise DYY yurt içi yatırımlarını ikame etmektedir. Ülkeye gelen DYY yurt içi yatırımları harekete geçirebilir. Bu çalışmada DYY ile yurt içi yatırımları arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisinin yönü sorgulanmıştır. Bu kapsamda Granger nedensellik testi, VAR parametre tahmin analizi, etki tepki fonksiyonları ve varyans ayrıştırma analizleri kullanılmıştır. Bu analizlerin verdiği kesin sonuç yurt içi yatırımların geçmiş değerlerindeki hareketlerin cari dönemdeki DYY hareketlerini olumlu yönde etkilediğidir. Beklentilerin aksine DYY ile yurt içi yatırımlar nedensellik ilişkisinin yönü DYYdan yurt içi yatırımlara doğru değil, yurt içi yatırımlardan DYY a doğru bulunmuştur.
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