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TÜRKİYE'DE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME VE DIŞ BORÇLANMA : AMPİRİK BİR ÇALIŞMA

ECONOMIC GROWTH AND FOREIGN INDEBTEDNESS IN TURKEY: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY

Journal Name:

  • İstanbul Üniversitesi İktisat Fakültesi Mecmuası

Publication Year:

  • 2004
Author NameUniversity of AuthorFaculty of Author
Abstract (2. Language): 
It is often argued that external debt service burden has a negative impact on investment and capital accumulation. Hence, debt service causes a slowdown in economic growth. The main reason is that the greater percentage of foreign exchange reserves goes to meet debt service and there will be a reduction in external capital because of a decrease in credit-worthiness. All of these make it difficulties to continue with large infrastructural investments, both new projects and old. In this study we have investigated a series of unit root, co-integration and causality tests to ascertain the direction of causality between the economic growth and external debt service in Turkey for the period 1965-2001 employing the Final Prediction Error (FPE) method for determining the optimal lag length of the explanatory variables. Moreover, the information on co-integration (Johansen, 1988 and Johansen and Juselius, 1990} in variables is taken into consideration in specifying the correct model. The results show that short-run uni-directional causality running from economic growth to external debt service but not vice versa.
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Abstract (Original Language): 
Dış borç yükünün yatırım ve sermaye birikimi üzerinde negatif etkisi olacağı İddia edilir. Bu yüzden dış borç ödemeleri ekonomik büyümenin yavaşlamasına sebep olur. Bunun başlıca nedeni kaynakların büyük bir oranının dış borç ödemelerine gittiği ve bunun ülkenin kredi derecelendirmesinde olumsuz etki yapmasıdır. Tüm bu zorluklar ülkede altyapı yatırımlarının yapılmasını, yeni projelerin başlatılmasını ve devam eden yatırımları olumsuz yönde etkiler. Bu çalışmada birim kök, kointegrasyon ve nedensellik testleri ile ¡965-2001 döneminde Türkiye 'de ekonomik büyüme İle dış borç ödemeleri arasında nasıl bir ilişki olduğu araştırılmıştır. Bunun yanında (Johansen, 1988 and Johansen &JuseliusJ990) tekniği kullanılarak gerçek modelin kurulması sağlanmıştır. Sonuçlar ekonomik büyüme ile dış borç ödemeleri arasında tek yönlü (ekonomik büyümeden dış borç ödemelerine doğru) bir ilişki olduğunu göstermiştir.
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  • 1
227-238
  • Turkish

REFERENCES

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