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ENFLASYON DÜZEYİ - ENFLASYON DEĞİŞKENLİĞİ İLİŞKİSİ: ÜLKELERE GÖRE AMPİRİK BİR SINAMA

Journal Name:

  • İstanbul Üniversitesi Maliye Araştırma Merkezi Konferansları Dergisi

Publication Year:

  • 2008
Author NameUniversity of AuthorFaculty of Author
Abstract (2. Language): 
The positive relationship hetween the level of inflation and its variability, which was originally suggested by Arthur M Okun (1971), has been the subject of many empirical studies. Some studies supported this hypothesis while some of them did not. In this paper, the existence of the positive relationship between the rate of inflation and its variability is empirically reexamined in 44 countries, including Turkey and for the 1980-2005 period. Using both time-series data for each country and cross-section data from all countries, this study has found a strong and positive relationship between the level of inflation and its variability. However, this relationship is much stronger especially in the developing countries with high and very high inflation rates. On the other hand, there seems to be an optimum zone of inflation rate within which the predictability of inflation is at its highest and hence uncertainty cost at its lowest. For the 1980-2005 period, this optimum zone of average inflation rate lies in the range of %4 to % 6.
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Abstract (Original Language): 
İlk olarak, Arthur M. Okun (1971) tarafından ortaya atılan, enflasyon düzeyi ile değişkenliği arasındaki pozitif ilişki, birçok ampirik çalışmanın konusunu oluşturmuştur. Bu çalışmalardan bazıları söz konusu hipotezi desteklerken bazıları da desteklememektedir. Bu çalışmada, aralarında Türkiye'nin de olduğu 44 ülkede, 1980-2005 dönemi için, enflasyon oranı ile değişkenliği arasındaki pozitif ilişkinin varlığı ampirik olarak tekrar test edilmektedir. Hem her ülkeye İlişkin zaman serisi verilerinden yararlanarak yapılan, hem de tüm ülkeleri biramda ele alan (ülkelerarası) testlerin sonucunda, enflasyon düzeyi ile değişkenliği arasında güçlü ve pozitif bir ilişki belirlenmiştir. Ancak bu ilişki, özellikle enflasyon oranı yüksek ve çok yüksek olan gelişmekte olan ülkeler grubunda çok daha güçlüdür. Ayrıca, enflasyonun öngörülebilirliğinin çok yüksek ve dolayısıyla belirsizlik maliyetinin en düşük olduğu optimum bir enflasyon alanı mevcuttur. 1980-2005 dönemi için, bu optimum ortalama enflasyon oranı bölgesi, % 4 - % 6 aralığında yer almaktadır.
FULL TEXT (PDF): 
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  • 1
55-101
  • Turkish

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