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IKIZ AÇIKLAR OLGUSU: FREKANS ALANINDA NEDENSELLIK YAKLASIMI

Twin Deficits Phenomenon: Causality in Frequency Domain Approach

Journal Name:

  • İstanbul Üniversitesi Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi Dergisi

Publication Year:

  • 2007

Key Words:

Keywords (Original Language):

Author NameUniversity of AuthorFaculty of Author
Abstract (2. Language): 
This paper examines the twin defic its hypothesis for U.S.A., Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Korea, the Philippines, Thailand and Turkey. In addition to Granger-causality tests in the time domain, this study employs causality tests in the frequency domain and spectral variance decomposition. The results from causality tests in the frequency domain can be summarized as follows : (i) there exists a significant causal relationship from budget deficits to current account defic its in the long run for Thailand and Brazil. (ii) The same causality relationship is found to be ins ignificant at all frequenc ies for Mexico, the Philippines and Turkey. (iii) The relationship is significant at high frequenc ies (short run) for Korea, Argentina and U.S.A. (iv) The causality from current account defic its to fiscal defic its is found to be significant in the This paper examines the twin defic its hypothesis for U.S.A., Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Korea, the Philippines, Thailand and Turkey. In addition to Granger-causality tests in the time domain, this study employs causality tests in the frequency domain and spectral variance decomposition. The results from causality tests in the frequency domain can be summarized as follows : (i) there exists a significant causal relationship from budget deficits to current account defic its in the long run for Thailand and Brazil. (ii) The same causality relationship is found to be ins ignificant at all frequenc ies for Mexico, the Philippines and Turkey. (iii) The relationship is significant at high frequenc ies (short run) for Korea, Argentina and U.S.A. (iv) The causality from current account defic its to fiscal defic its is found to be significant in the This paper examines the twin defic its hypothesis for U.S.A., Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Korea, the Philippines, Thailand and Turkey. In addition to Granger-causality tests in the time domain, this study employs causality tests in the frequency domain and spectral variance decomposition. The results from causality tests in the frequency domain can be summarized as follows : (i) there exists a significant causal relationship from budget deficits to current account defic its in the long run for Thailand and Brazil. (ii) The same causality relationship is found to be ins ignificant at all frequenc ies for Mexico, the Philippines and Turkey. (iii) The relationship is significant at high frequenc ies (short run) for Korea, Argentina and U.S.A. (iv) The causality from current account defic its to fiscal defic its is found to be significant in the long run for Argentina and Turkey. Albeit weak, similar causality relationship is found for U.S.A. (v) And finally, for Korea, Mexico, the Philippines, Brazil and Thailand, the causality from foreign defic its to budget defic its is found to be significant only in the short run (at high frequenc ies ).
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Abstract (Original Language): 
Bu çalismada ikiz açiklar hipotezi A.B.D., Arjantin, Brezilya, Meksika, G. Kore, Filipinler, Tayland ve Türkiye ekonomileri iç in incelenmektedir. Çalismada zaman alanindaki Granger nedensellik testlerinin yani sira frekans alaninda nedensellik testleri ve spektral varyans ayristirma teknikleri kullanilmistir. Çalismada spektral nedensellik testleri ile vari lan sonuçlar söyle özetlenebilir: (i) Tayland ve Brezilya’da uzun dönemde bütçe açiklarindan dis açiklara dogru güçlü ve anlamli bir iliski bulunmustur. (ii) Meks ika, Filipinler ve Türkiye’de ise her frekans düzeyinde iliski anlamsizdir. (iii) Kore, Arjantin ve A.B.D.’de ise kisa dönemlerde anlamli bir iliski bulunmustur. (iv) Türkiye ve Arjantin’de uzun dönemde dis açiklardan bütçe açiklarina dogru anlamli bir nedensellik iliskisi vardir. A.B.D. iç in zayif ancak ayni yönde iliski bulunmustur. (v) Son olarak, Kore, Meks ika, Filipinler, Brezilya ve Tayland’da dis açiklardan bütçe açiklarina dogru iliski daha çok mevs imsel/kisa dönemlerde (yüksek frekanslarda) anlamli bulunmustur.
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  • 37
87-111
  • Turkish

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