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YAPISAL KIRILMALARI GÖZ ÖNÜNE ALARAK TÜRK İMALAT SANAYİ EKONOMİK DEĞİŞKENLERİ ARASINDA UZUN DÖNEM İLİŞKİLERİN ARAŞTIRILMASI

RESEARCH INTO THE LONGRUN RELATIONSHIP AMONG THE ECONOMIC VARIABLES OF TURKISH MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY CONSIDERING THE STRUCTURAL BREAKS

Journal Name:

  • Kafkas Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi

Publication Year:

  • 2014

Key Words:

Keywords (Original Language):

Author NameUniversity of AuthorFaculty of Author
Abstract (2. Language): 
As known Manufacturing Industry is one of the main sources of the Turkish economy. Moreover, Manufacturing Industry, with its high production capacity and with its volume of foreign trade, constitutes a driving force for growth and development. Of the country for this reason, in this study, the relationships among the economic variables related with the Turkish Manufacturing Industry are investigated by using time series analysis techniques. The study puts forward a distinctive and original study due to its investigation of the trade deficit related to the Manufacturing Industry and its identification of long term relationships among the selected economic variables. In this study, co-integration analysis is applied among production, import and export series of Turkish Manufacturing Industry for the period of January 1989-March 2013. Taking into consideration the economic crises that happened in this time period, related structural break tests are employed as well. As a result of the co-integration analyses used between Manufacturing Industry production and imports as well as exports of this industry branch, no relationship is found. On the other hand, a long term relationship is identified between Manufacturing Industry Imports and Exports. When the results of the method of Dynamic Ordinary Least Square, which can be applied to co-integrated series and which often used by the literature for the decision concerning sustainability, are examined and the Manufacturing Industry foreign trade deficit is found to be sustainable.
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Abstract (Original Language): 
Bilindiği gibi Türk İmalat Sanayi ulusal ekonominin temel kaynaklarından biridir. Ayrıca İmalat Sanayi yüksek üretim kapasitesi ve dış ticaret hacmiyle, büyüme ve kalkınma için itici bir güç oluşturmaktadır. Bu nedenle çalışmada Türk İmalat Sanayi ile ilgili ekonomik değişkenler arasındaki ilişkiler, zaman serisi analiz teknikleri kullanılarak araştırılmıştır. Özellikle İmalat Sanayi’ne ait dış ticaret açığının incelenmesi ve seçilen ekonomik göstergeler arasında uzun dönem ilişkilerin belirlenmesi çalışmaya özgün bir nitelik katmaktadır. Çalışmada Ocak 1989-Mart 2013 dönemleri arasında Türk İmalat Sanayi’nde; üretim, ithalat ve ihracat serileri arasında Eşbütünleşme Analizleri yapılmış ve bu süreçte yaşanan ekonomik krizlerden dolayı oluşan şoklar dikkate alınarak, ilgili yapısal kırılma testleri de kullanılmıştır. Sonuç olarak yapılan Eşbütünleşme Analizleriyle İmalat Sanayi Üretimi ile bu sanayi kolunun ithalatı ve ihracatı arasında herhangi bir ilişki bulunamamıştır. İmalat Sanayi İthalatı ve İhracatı arasında ise uzun dönemde bir ilişki olduğu saptanmıştır. Eşbütünleşik serilere uygulanabilen, literatürde sürdürülebilirliğe karar vermede sıklıkla kullanılan Dinamik En Küçük Kareler yöntemi sonuçlarına bakıldığında ise İmalat Sanayi dış ticaret açığının sürdürülebilir olduğu saptanmıştır.
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  • 7
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  • Turkish

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REFERENCES

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ORHUNBİLGE, KUZU | Research into the Long-Run Relationship Among the Economic Variables Of ...
Kafkas University Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences Faculty
KAU EASF Journal | Vol 5 * Issue 7 * Year 2014
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