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PARA, FİYATLAR VE ÇIKTI ARASINDAKİ UZUN-DÖNEMLİ İLİŞKİLER: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

LONG-RUN RELATIONS BETWEEN MONEY, PRICES AND OUTPUT: THE CASE OF TURKEY

Journal Name:

  • Zonguldak Karaelmas Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi

Publication Year:

  • 2008

Key Words:

Keywords (Original Language):

Author NameUniversity of AuthorFaculty of Author
Abstract (2. Language): 
In this paper, the long-run relationships between monetary aggregates, prices and real output level have been examined in a quantity theory of money perspective for the Turkish economy. Using some contemporaneous econometric techniques, our findings exhibit that stationary characteristics of the velocities of narrowly and broadly defined monetary aggregates cannot be rejected. However, monetary aggregates seem to have an endogeneity for the long-run evolution of prices and real income. Furthermore, some parameter instabilities and structural breaks have been attributed to the estimated model especially for the 1994 and 2001 economic crisis periods in the Turkish economy. We have concluded that given the endogenous characteristics of the monetary variables, monetary authority follows an accommodative monetary policy inside the period.
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Abstract (Original Language): 
Bu çalışmada, parasal büyüklükler, fiyatlar ve reel çıktı seviyesi arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkiler paranın miktar kuramı çerçevesinde Türkiye ekonomisi için incelenmektedir. Çağdaş bazı ekonometrik yöntemler kullanılmak suretiyle elde ettiğimiz bulgular dar ve geniş kapsamlı tanımlanan parasal büyüklüklere ait dolanım hızlarının durağan yapısının reddedilemeyeceğini göstermektedir. Bununla birlikte, parasal büyüklükler fiyatların ve reel gelirin uzun-dönemli gelişimi açısından içsel bir yapıda görülmektedir. Ayrıca, bazı parametre istikrarsızlıkları ve yapısal kırılmalar özellikle Türkiye ekonomisindeki 1994 ve 2001 ekonomik kriz dönemleri için tahmin edilen modelle ilişkilendirilmektedir. Sonuç olarak parasal değişkenlerin içsel yapılarının veri olduğu bir ortamda parasal yetkililerin uyumlaştırıcı bir para politikası izlediği sonucuna ulaşılmaktadır.
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  • 7
33-54
  • Turkish

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