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AVRUPA PARASAL BİRLİĞİNDE KAMU BORÇ STOKU VE ENFLASYON İLİŞKİSİ: PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ

Journal Name:

  • İstanbul Üniversitesi Ekonometri ve İstatistik Dergisi

Publication Year:

  • 2009

Key Words:

Keywords (Original Language):

Author NameUniversity of AuthorFaculty of Author
Abstract (2. Language): 
The traditional view on price determination focuses on the role of monetary policy and the role of fiscal policy is usually neglected. Most analyses assume that the monetary authority is expected to set its control variable without facing any constraint, so that prices are determined by money supply and demand in a traditional way. Hovewer, a new approach has emerged in the 1990s, which allows fiscal policy to set primary surpluses to follow an arbitrary process, not necessarily compatible with solvency. “This theory could be of particular interest for monetary unions since it might contribute to explain the different evolution of the price level across the member countries. The aim of this paper is to test empirically by using panel data analysis whether the impact of the fiscal policy affects price level determination in both Old and New members and Candidate countries to the European Monetary Union. The panel data analysis basically evidences Ricardian or monetary dominant regime in all the groups.
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Abstract (Original Language): 
Fiyat seviyesinin belirlenmesinin geleneksel (monetarist) görüşü, parasal politikanın rolüne odaklanırken mali politikanın rolünü ihmal etmektedir. Geleneksel teoride, fiyat seviyesi para arzı ve talebiyle belirlenirken, 1990’lı yıllardan itibaren ortaya çıkan fiyat düzeyinin mali kuramı (FTPL) mali otoritenin, zamanlararası kamu bütçe kısıtının sağlanmasından bağımsız olarak mali değişkenlerini oluşturmasına izin verip mali politikaların fiyat seviyesini belirleyebildiğini vurgulamaktadır. Yeni teori, Avrupa Parasal Birliğine üye ülkelerde fiyat seviyesinin farklılaşmasını açıklayabilmektedir. Bu çalışmanın temel amacı, Avrupa Parasal Birliğine Eski ve Yeni Üye ülkeler ile Aday ülkelerde mali politikaların fiyat seviyesini etkileyip etkilemediğinin panel veri yöntemiyle analiz edilmesidir. Panel veri analizi, tüm ülke gruplarında Ricardocu veya parasal üstünlük rejiminin geçerli olduğunu veya bir diğer ifadeyle FTPL’nin geçerli olmadığını kanıtlamaktadır.
FULL TEXT (PDF): 
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  • 9
30-55
  • Turkish

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