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GENÇ İŞSİZLİĞİN TEMEL MAKROEKONOMİK BELİRLEYİCİLERİ: AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZ

THE MAIN MACROECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS

Journal Name:

  • Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi

Publication Year:

  • 2015
DOI: 
10.5505/pausbed.2015.48343

Key Words:

Keywords (Original Language):

Author NameUniversity of AuthorFaculty of Author
Abstract (2. Language): 
The youth unemployment has been debated for a long time in Turkish economy by theorists and policy makers. In this study the impact of per capita real income, trade openness, inflation and foreign direct investment on youth unemployment is investigated. For this purpose, ARDL bounds testing approach and Granger causality test based on vector error correction model are used. Empirical findings indicate the presence of a long run relationship between the variables. Empirical findings also indicate that the effect of per capita real income, trade openness, inflation and foreign direct investment on youth unemployment is negative and statistically significant. There exists a bi-directional causality between youth unemployment and foreign direct investment in the long run. In addition, a long run causality running from per capita real income, inflation and trade openness to youth unemployment is determined. These results can provide some policy implications related with Turkish economy.
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Abstract (Original Language): 
Genç işsizlik Türkiye ekonomisinde teorisyenler ve politika yapıcıları tarafından uzun bir süredir tartışılmaktadır. Bu çalışmada Türkiye ekonomisinde 1988-2013 dönemi için kişi başına reel gelir, ticari açıklık, enflasyon ve doğrudan yabancı sermayenin genç işsizlik üzerindeki etkisi araştırılmaktadır. Bu amaçla ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımı ve vektör hata düzeltme modeline dayalı Granger nedensellik testi kullanılmıştır. Ampirik sonuçlar değişkenler arasında bir uzun dönem ilişkisinin varlığını ortaya koymaktadır. Ampirik sonuçlar ayrıca uzun ve kısa dönemde kişi başına reel gelir, ticari açıklık ve doğrudan yabancı sermayenin genç işsizlik üzerinde negatif ve anlamlı bir etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Uzun dönemde genç işsizlik ve doğrudan yabancı sermaye arasında çift yönlü bir nedensellik söz konusudur. Ayrıca, kişi başına reel gelir, enflasyon ve ticari açıklıktan genç işsizliğe doğru bir uzun dönem nedensellik tespit edilmiştir. Bu sonuçlar Türkiye ekonomisine ilişkin bazı politika önerileri sunabilmektedir.
FULL TEXT (PDF): 
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  • Turkish

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