Öncü Göstergeler Yaklaşımıyla Türkiye’de 2008 Krizinin Değerlendirilmesi

The objective of this study is to reveal whether 2008 Economic Crisis may be forecast with the leading indicators’ approach along with observation of different economic indicators in the pre-2008 Economic Crisis setting with the aid of ‘Leading Indicators Approach’ developed by Kaminsky, Lizondo and Reinhart (KLR) in 1998. In order to be able to gain a comprehensive set of cues from a wide array of sectors, the proposed work has tested the experiences of the period of 2002:1 extending to the interval of 2009:12 within the framework of 10 indicators by means of KLR Signal Approach (1998). According to the findings of the study, among the analyzed indicators, industrial production index has excelled in terms of correct signaling while domestic credit volume has performed significantly much better as a leading indicator in terms of the probability of continuity of signaling ante-crisis. Moreover, Composite Leading Indicators Index composed of variables current account balance, real interest rates and real GDP respectively, have been successful in foreseeing the 2008 Crisis coupled with the concluding remark that the selected leading indicators have exhibited outstanding performances in forecasting the crisis as a whole.