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TÜRKİYE'DE SAVUNMA HARCAMALARININ İKTİSADI ETKİLERİ ÜZERİNE NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ (1970 - 2010)

A CAUSALITY ANALYSIS ON THE ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF DEFENSE EXPENDITURE IN TURKEY (1970-2010)

Journal Name:

  • Trakya Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi

Publication Year:

  • 2013

Key Words:

Keywords (Original Language):

Author NameUniversity of AuthorFaculty of Author
Abstract (2. Language): 
Different approaches and findings are encountered in the literature both in the theoretic field and the results of the empirical studies regarding the effects of the defense expenditures which is a branch of public expenditures on the basic macroeconomic indicators. In this study, the causality relationship between the defense expenditures and GDP, employment and import indicators are reviewed in Turkey where both internal and the external security has an important significance because of the geo-strategic location. In this context, while the bilateral causality is encountered between the defense expenditures and the employment in the study made where first Granger causality test is conducted; as the result of the analysis carried out to causality with the Toda-Yamamoto approach the causality relation is determined from the employment to the defense expenditures and from the defense expenditures to the GDP.
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Abstract (Original Language): 
Kamu harcamalarının bir kolu olan savunma harcamalarının temel makro ekonomik göstergeler üzerindeki etkileri hakkında literatürde gerek teorik alanda gerekse ampirik çalışmaların sonuçlarında farklı yaklaşım ve bulgulara rastlanmaktadır. Bu çalışmada; jeostratejik konumu sebebiyle hem iç hem dış güvenliğin büyük bir öneme sahip olduğu Türkiye'de, savunma harcamalarının GSYH, istihdam ve ithalat göstergeleri ile arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi incelenmiştir. Bu kapsamda, önce Granger nedensellik testi yapılan çalışmada savunma harcamaları ile istihdam arasında karşılıklı nedenselliğe rastlanırken; nedenselliğe Toda-Yamamoto yaklaşımı ile yapılan analiz sonucunda ise istihdamdan savunma harcamalarına ve savunma harcamalarından GSYH'ye doğru nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir.
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