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Ankara’da Ölçülen Yıllık Maksimum YağıĢların Bölgesel Frekans Analizi

Regional Frequency Analysis for Annual Maxima Precipitation Data Measured in Ankara Province

Journal Name:

  • Gaziosmanpaşa Üniversitesi Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi

Publication Year:

  • 2011

Key Words:

Keywords (Original Language):

Author NameUniversity of AuthorFaculty of Author
Abstract (2. Language): 
In this study, regional frequency analysis of precipitation data is carried out through methods of Lmoments in Ankara province. Annual maxima precipitation series are formed using daily precipitation records obtained from 32 rainfall gauging station. Firstly, whole stations are assumed one region and then stations are split up three region using cluster analysis due to discordant stations. A set of analysis is carried out through index-flood procedure and regional homogeneity is obtained and suitable probability distribution is selected for each region and probable design precipitation values are estimated for various return periods (T year= 2, 5, 10, 25 and 100) via regional L-moment algorithm. Monte Carlo simulation experiments are applied and regional growth curve components are obtained and absolute bias, bias and root mean square errors (RMSE) of estimated quantiles are computed for assessment of the accuracy of estimated precipitation quantiles.
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Abstract (Original Language): 
Bu araĢtırmada Ankara ilinde meydana gelen yağıĢların L moment yöntemleri ile bölgesel frekans analizi gerçekleĢtirilmiĢtir. Bu amaçla 32 yağıĢ gözlem istasyonundan elde edilen günlük yağıĢ miktarlarından yararlanarak yıllık maksimum yağıĢ dizileri oluĢturulmuĢtur. Bölgesel analizlere istasyonların tümü bir bölge kabul edilerek baĢlanmıĢ, ancak istasyonlardaki düzensizlikten dolayı Ankara ili kümeleme analizi yardımıyla üç bölgeye ayrılmıĢtır. Gösterge taĢkın yöntemi yoluyla gerçekleĢtirilen bir dizi analizler sonucunda bölgelere göre homojenlik sağlanmıĢ, her bölge için uygun bir olasılık dağılımı saptanmıĢ ve bölgesel L moment algoritması ile çeĢitli tekrarlanma sürelerinde (2, 5, 10, 25, 50 ve 100 yıl) muhtemel tasarım yağıĢları tahmin edilmiĢtir. Tahmin edilen yağıĢ miktarlarının doğruluğunun değerlendirilmesi amacıyla Monte Carlo simülasyon tekniği uygulanmıĢ ve her bölge için büyüme eğri bileĢenleri elde edilerek, tekrarlanma tahminlerinin mutlak taraflılık, taraflılık ve ortalama karekök hataları (RMSE) hesaplanmıĢtır.
FULL TEXT (PDF): 
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  • 1
61-71
  • Turkish

REFERENCES

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